Dr.
Greg V. Jones started his professional life as a chef and the idea of climatology
was inconceivable to him. Then his father started a vineyard and Jones found
himself immersed in weather and grapes. Listed as one of Decanter Magazines “50
Most Influential People in the World of Wine,” and IntoWine.com’s “Top 100 MostInfluential People in the U.S. Wine Industry,” Jones is Professor of
Environmental Studies at Southern Oregon University and is the most widely
known climate scientist working with the wine industry. Actually, he’s the only
one.
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| Oregon grapes in the Umpqua Valley |
Jones
has conducted climate-based research extensively in Oregon’s Umpqua and Rogue valleys, China,
spent 10 months in the Douro in
Portugal, went to Bordeaux doing
field work for his PhD, and has provided his expert opinion to dozens of wine
growing regions across the globe. He helps vineyard owners understand a sites’
potential and risk. I sat down with him in Oregon a while back over breakfast
and was, well, fascinated (and trust me, I’m not fascinated by many people). “As
you assess property to grow grapes you might only be viewing it for a year or
two and you can’t feasibly understand where frost pockets are, where wind
issues might show up, heat accumulation or water logging,” he tells me. “We
establish a suite of information about what should be grown where, what are the
range of potential outcomes of sugar ripeness, acid levels, pH, berry sizes,
and yields, thereby creating a phenology calendar.” Previously, fundamental
questions relating to choosing a vineyard site weren’t obvious and from a
climate perspective grape growers had some knowledge about site selection, but
it was minimal at best. No one was doing the climate science side of it.
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| Me and Dr., Dr, Jones |
Which
begs the question Jones is bombarded with constantly: can climate change
actually affect vineyards? “Some people, because of their ideology, will never
believe that humans have an impact on our climate. But for agriculturalists they adapt tactically to climate year in
and year out, they just don’t recognize it,” he says. “If I ask what they’re
doing differently than what they did 25 years ago they’ll tell me a slew of
things that are related to weather.” And the earth’s climate is
changing, so what can a vineyard do? “Either there is adaptive potential in the
vine system, or adaptation in the human system,” Jones suggests. However
everyone knows plants are easier to manage and motivate than people.
For
four years Jones performed comprehensive mapping and GPS coordinates of
Oregon’s Umpqua and Rogue Valleys. That was the first baseline documentation
for the region, and many other American wine regions have never even bothered
to consider it. “I have to give the Europeans credit. They observe their
environment better than Americans. They know their native plants, when they
bloom or flower, they know bird migration habits,” he says. In Oregon by
contrast, prior to vineyards being planted there are data sets from pear
orchards include bloom dates, but only from 1931 on (even though commercial
orchards had been planted as far back as the 1890s) because no one bothered to
keep track. Don’t tell that to the Hungarians. “In Hungry they have vine data
sets going back to 1533,” Jones excitedly tells me like a nerdy kid enthused by
statistical data. “They used to go into the vineyards and observe the vine
sprouts. From 1533 to 1740 it was a written tradition - they wrote which
variety was in what vineyard, that is was so many centimeters, and had so many
leaves.” After 1740 cuttings were hand drawn to scale in a “vine sprout book,”
which Jones found when he was there. He used a computer program to measure the
length of the drawn shoots, and then coded them based on phenology showing how
many leaves there were, and how far the buds were open. “We have used that
information to infer spring temperatures back to 1533!” Seriously? And that
gives Jones accurate and predictable data to suggest what vines will grow best
in the future.
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| Dr. Jones in Portugal |
But
for many people, the idea of climate change is ridiculous. “It’s the One-Degree
problem,” Jones says. “We talk as if one-degree is no biggie. The beach is a
little warmer the summers are nicer. However one-degree to an insect, plant or
crop is tremendously different, so it’s
not a one-degree problem, but rather what the magnitude of small changes
mean to different systems.” And that applies to grapevines. “We have a narrow
climate niche across the entire spectrum of how grapes are grown and each
variety has an even more narrow niche,” says Jones. “Pinot Noir for example can
be grown across a range of about four degrees Fahrenheit for its average
climate,” Jones notes. “Let’s say you’re the Tamar Valley in Tasmania and you’re on the low end of that; you’re
cool, you ripen, but you are at that margin of suitability for Pinot. Then you
warm by two degrees over 30 years.” Happily the vines move to the center of
Pinot Noir’s sweet spot. But then, Jones surmises, “Let’s say you’re Russian River Valley; you’re at the warmest point for Pinot Noir, and it warms two, three
degrees; suddenly your valuable fruit is better suited for bulk wine.”
Therefore Jones suggests growers reconsider spacing, rows, and orientation of
their vineyards. “The adage of north-south rows in hot regions should be
relooked at. You should be going southeast to northwest in a hot region so you
can maintain leaves on the southern face and take leaves off the other side.” Small changes can bring long-term benefits.
There is also considerable work being done genetically with rootstocks that
can better manage pests, saline soil, and temperature fluctuations, and Jones
suggests that vineyards in warming climates might consider planting varieties
already grown in extremely warm regions like Xinomavro and Assyrtiko from
Greece, and Vinhão from Portugal.
What
might be the next growing regions in the U.S I inquire? “Parts of the Puget
Sound are the cool climate frontier. Idaho has immense potential, and there’s a
push to develop higher elevation plantings in Arizona.” Still, there will be no
sudden apocalyptic reveal like Hollywood would have us believe whereby the
climate freaks out and destroys mankind in 120 minutes. Mother Nature however
does operate on a whim at times but everyone, from commercial farmers to anyone
with an herb garden in their backyard, inherently understands that weather will
change. That it is changing more predictably will force us to grapple with
increasingly complex issues. The answer is decidedly Darwinian. “We need to
have greater adaptive capacity,” Dr. Jones says. “It’s that simple.”
